I believe we are reaching an intermediate term inflection point...many charts I follow through the indexes are starting to have big reversals and coming off quite a bit from their recent highs. More times than not through my experiences this is the initial tell some sort of top is forming...many stocks will come off quite precipitously while the last of the speculative money pushes fewer and fewer darlings to even higher highs. A good example of this was the AAN buy and stop out at b/e...on all accounts technically this thing should have taken off, it didn't which meant the air up their was pretty thin and couldnt find any excess buyers over the margin...many other stocks are showing this type of action. I expect another few days or even 2 weeks of a grind higher...internals are weak and counting on the QE fervor hype and is setting up for another good short-sale opportunity. I legged into one short so far in the Model 10 with EEM...i will be looking for quite a few more as I feel the path of least resistance near-term is down. My short shopping list at the moment is (AMGN, PCLN, GILD, EBAY, CELG, CERN, ALTR, AKAM, AXP, NKE, USB, NOV, APA) we are 1438 as I write this on the S&P, I see 1447 as a reasonable upside target with a possible extension up to 1463-67, where the risk will be severely tilted to the downside.
Bonds look like they still need a downside push which would coincide with the mkt indicees pushing a bit higher...Euro looks like its topping, but another push up above $1.30 isn't out of the question...today's strong reversal in metals is a prelude to what I feel is about to happen after another push to one more high....stay tuned!
I will continue to publish any other changes to Model 10
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