Thursday, September 13, 2012
Frenzy...
Bernanke gave the go ahead and buyers didn't dissapoint....all things easy money sky rocketed...gold, silver, equities had explosive days. As a technician I could care less about QE3 if I'm truly trading the charts...so why today is so important to the likes of me is not the "news" but the "reaction". Many charts are starting to get clearer...the buck needs to rally off these severely oversold conditions, it has multiple positive divergences (meaning euro neg divergences and topping). The VIX is finally reaching levels I've been targeting for the past month or so, it also is happening on positive divergences, showing me it is in the process of bottoming. Metals are a bit more cloudy at this time...they still look like they are showing signs of an exhaustion blow off type move, but I am studying them closely for signs it isn't and really a sustainable initiatin type move. this gets me to stocks...the two upside targets I've written where 1447 (taken out today) & then 1467...looks like we will be getting the latter...this "euphoric" buying frenzy appears on the charts perfectly for a nice swift corrective move lower to cut these bulls down to size. I've slowly positioned for this move with Net long exposure entering today of only 45% (65% longs, 20% short & 15% cash)...."Model 10" is +7.5% since June 30th inception...charts are telling me to continue to be more cautious...all long positions are on the chopping block as they hit targets laid out when purchased. I'll let EEM short continue to play out but won't be afraid to blow out quickly if charts tell me this market is going directly back to '07 highs of 1550+ without a correction....Nimble is the name of the game...always...stay tuned
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