Pressing CERN short....Exiting ESRX small gain

love this set-up...doubling down...looks very corrective vs. impulsive to the upside in waves of 3 vs 5 waves....filled $77.80

I also closed out long position in ESRX at $62.80....just doesn't look / feel right...bought it at $61.44 so small gain...

Another Short....CERN in Model 10

just shorted CERN at $73.98....price target is low $60's in short order....above $76.50 has my attention and above $77.80 has me most likely out...

Model 10 now up to 40% Net Short....

Love my positioning here...

Made some great shifts in positioning yesterday to get to 30% net short...

I will be keying off of 1450-53 level....below there and I see 1415-25 as very doable before a meaningful bounce...above that threshold and I need to re-examine and put a higher bullish move back on the table...

*MISTAKE*

Earlier I said I shorted EBAY at $41.28....TYPO!!!!

I got filled at $48.28!!!  Sorry for mistake...

Took gains in TGT

In Model 10 took gains in TGT just now at $64.59

Short EBAY

also shorted EBAY @ 41.28 in Model 10

now my mkt exposure is 20% short...

Shorted NOV...Model 10

just went short NOV in Model 10 @ $80.42

ORCL sold in Model 10

Sold ORCL position when I got stopped out on break of $32...got filled at $31.98

Model 10 performance update...

Through today's close here is updated Model 10 graph against S&P 500...

Another Short...

Yes you are reading this correctly....I just shorted MON at $90.98 in Model 10

This is why I love technicals...It allows so much flexibility in your investment menu...never fall in love with a name or hate a name forever....

I just purchased MON at $84.10a few weeks back and sold it at $90.00

Now Mon is trying to take on 4 years of resistance at the $91-94 level....for a number of reasons I think it fails and moves back towards low $80's

Stopping out above $94/95 level

Took gains in ALL in Model 10

Sold full position in ALL right now @ $40.56 which was my Price objective from purchase...

Lots of Dry powder right now to fire off....leaning short, but as always letting the market be my guide...

still see 5th wave up in many individual charts needing to complete and then lookout for a pretty swift wash-out maybe 7-12% lower....

selling remaining GOOG

Out of my 2nd half of original position of GOOG @ $721.46....purchased at $619 and change less than 2 months ago....

hitting more upside targets....stretched and I love taking gains...so as I like to say "the meat" of the move is complete....could it go higher?  sure....do I care?  Not really...I play the probabilities not possibilities...and the high probability trade has completed...

Model 10 exposure down to only 30% Net long

could see another ramp to 1475-80....but I'm not a big fan of squeezing the last drop out of the toothpaste tube...I'll await the new fresh tube!

MON exit

Locked in 7% gain this morning in MON at $90.00 a share from purchase of $84.10

my original price target was $90.25 so I decided to lock-in profits...

We are too near a mkt top in my opinion to not to continue to get defensive...

I'll keep updates coming...

Frenzy...

Bernanke gave the go ahead and buyers didn't dissapoint....all things easy money sky rocketed...gold, silver, equities had explosive days.  As a technician I could care less about QE3 if I'm truly trading the charts...so why today is so important to the likes of me is not the "news" but the "reaction".  Many charts are starting to get clearer...the buck needs to rally off these severely oversold conditions, it has multiple positive divergences (meaning euro neg divergences and topping).  The VIX is finally reaching levels I've been targeting for the past month or so, it also is happening on positive divergences, showing me it is in the process of bottoming.  Metals are a bit more cloudy at this time...they still look like they are showing signs of an exhaustion blow off type move, but I am studying them closely for signs it isn't and really a sustainable initiatin type move.  this gets me to stocks...the two upside targets I've written where 1447 (taken out today) & then 1467...looks like we will be getting the latter...this "euphoric" buying frenzy appears on the charts perfectly for a nice swift corrective move lower to cut these bulls down to size.  I've slowly positioned for this move with Net long exposure entering today of only 45% (65% longs, 20% short & 15% cash)...."Model 10" is +7.5% since June 30th inception...charts are telling me to continue to be more cautious...all long positions are on the chopping block as they hit targets laid out when purchased.  I'll let EEM short continue to play out but won't be afraid to blow out quickly if charts tell me this market is going directly back to '07 highs of 1550+ without a correction....Nimble is the name of the game...always...stay tuned

CELG short in "MODEL 10"

just added another short position in Model 10...

Shorted CELG @ $73.84...stop out above $77 with downside targets of $67 down to $58

Market Thoughts

I believe we are reaching an intermediate term inflection point...many charts I follow through the indexes are starting to have big reversals and coming off quite a bit from their recent highs.  More times than not through my experiences this is the initial tell some sort of top is forming...many stocks will come off quite precipitously while the last of the speculative money pushes fewer and fewer darlings to even higher highs.  A good example of this was the AAN buy and stop out at b/e...on all accounts technically this thing should have taken off, it didn't which meant the air up their was pretty thin and couldnt find any excess buyers over the margin...many other stocks are showing this type of action.  I expect another few days or even 2 weeks of a grind higher...internals are weak and counting on the QE fervor hype and is setting up for another good short-sale opportunity.  I legged into one short so far in the Model 10 with EEM...i will be looking for quite a few more as I feel the path of least resistance near-term is down. My short shopping list at the moment is (AMGN, PCLN, GILD, EBAY, CELG, CERN, ALTR, AKAM, AXP, NKE, USB, NOV, APA) we are 1438 as I write this on the S&P, I see 1447 as a reasonable upside target with a possible extension up to 1463-67, where the risk will be severely tilted to the downside.

Bonds look like they still need a downside push which would coincide with the mkt indicees pushing a bit higher...Euro looks like its topping, but another push up above $1.30 isn't out of the question...today's strong reversal in metals is a prelude to what I feel is about to happen after another push to one more high....stay tuned!

I will continue to publish any other changes to Model 10

AAN...stopped out in "Model 10"

Stopped out of my long AAN position just a bit ago at b/e $29.18

this thing just never got going on the supposed breakout...not worth risking any capital on this one...I will move on and find other opportunities...

taking some gains in "Model 10"

I've said it before and I'll say it again...risk-management is the difference between being an alright or so-so trader/ investor and an excellent one...

Sold half my GOOG position just now at $711.13

I also sold my full position in GE @ $21.48

I laid out 3 price targets for GOOG above $700 when I bought the stock and it hit my 1st one this morning...have to lock in 15% gains in a few short weeks!  let the other half position ride for my higher targets...

I have room for another 1.5 positions in Model 10, will report back if I make any more adjustments...

Short EEM in "Model 10"....

just shorted EEM in "Model 10" at $39.82 to hedge some of my longs...and as an outright good looking short....

chart to follow....

Thoughts...

Kaboom!  thats what happens when too many shorts line-up and press bets and the market isn't ready to top yet...haven't said anything past few weeks, because for most of the whole end of August we literaly pin-balled between 1415 and 1395...complete snoozer

Individual charts pointed higher and today we are getting the explosion.  I'm going to let 'em run a bit more, but am realistic that we may be withing 15 pts of a pretty good intermediate top...my expectations would be 1447 will hold and a correction to the tune of 1300 or so....maybe 1280....

I will be scouring charts for short-setups if i can find many....I will also be firing of taking gains on my longs when price objectives are met...so far a few points away on GOOG, MON, GE....just know I will be looking to punt these any any other LONGS on a moments notice...I may not have time to post fills real-time...

I will update end of week "Model 10" performance against S&P 500 tomorrow....holdings look good and continue to outperform....critical decisions / positioning over next week will most likely prove to be significant...

enjoy today, but that euphoria out there....let's just say it won't last!!!!

with that being said...ALL LONG POSITIONS I'm holding are getting Stops raised to a minimum of B/E....