Sorry for late posts...

Been crazy busy so just remembered I forgot to post trades from this morning....

Covered ALXN short just after the open @ $93.85.....

I also bought EWZ right before the close yesterday @ $53.58...

looking to add more long exposure....but want to make sure this rally is for real before in doing so...like longs I currently hold...more of the slow and methodical bunch at the moment, which in times like this I'm very okay with....basically avoided huge drop from 1465 down to 1350....so outperforming indexes still by wide margin....

stay tuned...

have many many many long set-ups that look attractive at the moment...

a few adjustments....

in Model 10...

covered MMM short position at break-even or scratch...

opened new long in ORCL at $31.73

I also covered the PRGO short position at small gain just above $101.50 off this mornings reversal...got filled at $101.52

AAPL was sold for a beautiful quick + 12% gain at $581.67 in a few short days

And lastly....I pressed ALXN short at $95.07 now making it a double position...have high conviction in this one that 5th wave down is about ready to commence

just shorted ALXN

new short in Model 10 of ALXN @ $93.65....

End of week...

Here's updated performance through today....not much changed in Model 10 due to mkt neutral posture earlier in the week....SnP lost some more ground...

I'll be on vacation next week...so posts won't happen till I return...I will still be transacting if I see anything but likely won't be able to post...

Happy Thanksgiving!

bought MDT

Another Model 10 long position in MDT @ $41.14 just now....

risking down to about $39 for reward of up to $47 minimum and quite possibly $50-58....

New Long in Model 10....AAPL

bought AAPL on reversal off lows at $518.15 this morning...looking for big run higher but respect risk-controls, so will stop out below this mornings low....

Indicees punished again....

here's what I wrote just the other day....

"suspect next move is still lower in mkt indicees...have many names on radar as a buy when price objectives are met....still a decent amount of charts that look like better short opportunity charts are out there as well....Think next few weeks could be choppy, usually the case when I see many long/short mixed chart opportunities...just means stock picking will be important since big up and down swings in indicees appear to be on the docket....as always let the charts be your guide....and when times like know when mkt looks in limbo and there is no technical edge...wait and watch and then Pounce! "

couldn't have said it better myself...hahaha

But seriously, this is why technicians always have an edge...you are always doing dynamic analysis instead of static thoughts...nothing becomes stale and always room to change directions....I didn't get hit much at all today with 10% net long position and a 50% cash position....my shorts adequately covered my longs....

still suspect near-term trend is down, no reason to fight it....have buy-list waiting, but don't suspect I'll pull it out until either 1321 or 1274 depending on how waves unfold...Model 10 is really starting to create some performance room against S&P 500, which actually went negative today since our 6/30/12 inception date...Model 10 went out at +9.79%.....so my investment strategy and risk-management system are proving very effective....but like always, there is never time to rest on laurels...work harder and continue to figure out better ways of doing things!

trade the charts....they don't lie!

PRGO short...

added another short here in PRGO @ $104.53

looking at covering (Reward) in area of $95-96, and outside chance of $89

stop-out above 108.50

MMM short....

just shorted MMM in Model 10 @ $89.85....looking for low $80's....risk is to $93ish

risking -3.50% or so for +7.7%

CHK new long...

I've watching CHK closely for quite some time...noticed a doji last friday combined with a hammer yesterday...I put in a buy-stop limit at $17.50 last night...got filled this morning at $17.51...so I am now long the name in MODEL 10....upside targets are $21-24....but will not be shy about taking gains....stopping out below lows of a few days ago which is $16.71...so stop at $16.59 right now....

risking 5.25% for +19%-31%

Waiting and watching...

nothing done today....Model 10 still 20% long and 80% cash....suspect next move is still lower in mkt indicees...have many names on radar as a buy when price objectives are met....still a decent amount of charts that look like better short opportunity charts are out there as well....Think next few weeks could be choppy, usually the case when I see many long/short mixed chart opportunities...just means stock picking will be important since big up and down swings in indicees appear to be on the docket....as always let the charts be your guide....and when times like know when mkt looks in limbo and there is no technical edge...wait and watch and then Pounce! 

Weeks end....

Market still has lower levels to get tagged on downside before we get a tradeable rally...in the meantime my system has done a fantastic job of rotating out of winner at precise price targets as well as stopping out of losers before larger losses mounted.  Going out on the week with largest cash position since I got up and running at 80%...think it's late to short a lot of stuff yet too early to buy, remember price is the upmost importance to me, so I will remain patient and wait for the market and individual charts to give more clarity.  this week has really seperated the Model 10 from the S&P 500 performance wise....these distribution moments in the market are key to how my system generates profits or performance over time, by consistently taking gains at high probability levels and finding better places, you are never in stale positions...too many people get stuck!

CELG cover...

CELG is in a support zone, so I decided to cover at $71.69 for a small +2.91% gain....

tons of powder dry here with 70% cash....mkt trying to find some footing here, but thinking we may have one last leg lower before a decent rally unfolds....

This is a perfect example why trading the charts works magic....when there isn't a clear set-up you sit and wait with profits booked!

MDVN limit hit...

got filled this morning covering my MDVN short at $44.50

nice 11% gain in a week!

CMG took profits

Sold CMG just after the open at $279.34

it touched $280 which was just too close to my $282 target...so out of that at a nice +16% gain...

MON stopped out at gain...

got stopped out on my short position this morning at $87.75 which I lowered to just above previous big down-days bar to make sure I took gains if it reversed...

Shorted at $90.98 and covered at $87.75...for small 3.55% gain...but hey a gains a gains a gain!

Friday = Thank God...

As you can see I put some more cash to work...went out on the week with 40% cash and 30% Short and 40% Long thus being slightly 10% Net Long....

Performance chart as I went out on the week...

NOV rounded out...

bought rest of NOV at $71.53 to round out a full position...avg'd at $72.52

MDVN short...NEM stopped out

Took full short position this a.m in MDVN on break of $50...noticed a little late on my alert system, so didn't get filled till $49.58...

Well that was quick, stopped out of NEM this morning right after open at $50.83....have to respect reward-to-risk ratio's and this is one of those times where it stings, but often end up proving to be good levels to exit...time will tell...

NEM add 2nd half position....

just made NEM a full position with my 2nd position add just now at $53.10....

Added 5% position or 1/2 in NEM

went long NEM just now at $54.14

will add more on pull-backs

looking for $60-65 as price objective...

will look to stop-out below $51 ish....

MODEL 10 Performance....

Updated performance through Today's close....Model 10 is +8.50% vs. S&P 500's +3.56% since 6/30/12 inception...

Last two weeks you can see Model 10 has really picked up some steam compared to SnP...outperformance has come from being able to short stocks...this is a huge advantage to Technical Analysis and using Charts...Long/Short doesn't matter, high probability set-ups matter...

I will never outperform a straight up raging bull-market, my system and methodology does not allow for that...but I believe over time by being able to consistently be nimble, take what the market gives you, and combining with a proper risk-management system and a technical expertise...you can develop more predictable, less volitile returns....have a good weekend

Covered some CERN...

hindsight's always 20/20 right?  Well, should have closed this short out yesterday but didn't...chart told me it was headed lower, so no harm no foul...I did earlier in the session close out my  short position @ $76.12....I opened this position up at $73.98 & $77.80 so ended up taking about a 0.3% loss....Chart right now is in Limbo, so am awaiting confirmation if it is headed higher or not...to possibly re-position, until then I'll wait on sidelines...

Went out on the week at 55% cash, 25% Long & 20% Short (so 5% Net Long)....so kinda waiting and seeing what SNP next big move is...I suspect we are trying to find a shorter term bottom here (tradeable)...but mkt feels a bit heavy so after a tradeable rally I suspect we have lower levels to be seen...as always I will continue to trade the charts...I like adding to my NOV soon, I also have GDX, RSX, NEM on my potential Buy/Long list...

NOV covering shorts...

Just covered ALL of my NOV short position at $73.50....

I actually went right into a small 1/2 position so 5% of Model 10 LONG position in NOV and got filled at $73.52...will add second 5% position around $71 if we get there...

stop out below $70 most likely...stay tuned

Adding CMG long...

Just bought 10% long position in CMG @ $240.43....

Now

Covering some things

Just covered EEM & EBAY in Model 10 portfolio

covered EEM @ $40.95
covered EBAY @ $49.72

think CERN, NOV, MON & CELG have further to fall!

Now 40% net short...

Nothing's changed

Positioning remains the same...still 60% net short with 20% cash to put to work at some point...mkt remains in choppy pattern.  Will post any changes, but I like my positions at the moment...performance for model 10 has picked up recently with market coming in and a nice net short position...through last friday Model 10 is +8.42% vs. S&P 500 +5.21% since 6/30/12 start date...

Pressing CERN short....Exiting ESRX small gain

love this set-up...doubling down...looks very corrective vs. impulsive to the upside in waves of 3 vs 5 waves....filled $77.80

I also closed out long position in ESRX at $62.80....just doesn't look / feel right...bought it at $61.44 so small gain...

Another Short....CERN in Model 10

just shorted CERN at $73.98....price target is low $60's in short order....above $76.50 has my attention and above $77.80 has me most likely out...

Model 10 now up to 40% Net Short....

Love my positioning here...

Made some great shifts in positioning yesterday to get to 30% net short...

I will be keying off of 1450-53 level....below there and I see 1415-25 as very doable before a meaningful bounce...above that threshold and I need to re-examine and put a higher bullish move back on the table...

*MISTAKE*

Earlier I said I shorted EBAY at $41.28....TYPO!!!!

I got filled at $48.28!!!  Sorry for mistake...

Took gains in TGT

In Model 10 took gains in TGT just now at $64.59

Short EBAY

also shorted EBAY @ 41.28 in Model 10

now my mkt exposure is 20% short...

Shorted NOV...Model 10

just went short NOV in Model 10 @ $80.42

ORCL sold in Model 10

Sold ORCL position when I got stopped out on break of $32...got filled at $31.98

Model 10 performance update...

Through today's close here is updated Model 10 graph against S&P 500...

Another Short...

Yes you are reading this correctly....I just shorted MON at $90.98 in Model 10

This is why I love technicals...It allows so much flexibility in your investment menu...never fall in love with a name or hate a name forever....

I just purchased MON at $84.10a few weeks back and sold it at $90.00

Now Mon is trying to take on 4 years of resistance at the $91-94 level....for a number of reasons I think it fails and moves back towards low $80's

Stopping out above $94/95 level

Took gains in ALL in Model 10

Sold full position in ALL right now @ $40.56 which was my Price objective from purchase...

Lots of Dry powder right now to fire off....leaning short, but as always letting the market be my guide...

still see 5th wave up in many individual charts needing to complete and then lookout for a pretty swift wash-out maybe 7-12% lower....

selling remaining GOOG

Out of my 2nd half of original position of GOOG @ $721.46....purchased at $619 and change less than 2 months ago....

hitting more upside targets....stretched and I love taking gains...so as I like to say "the meat" of the move is complete....could it go higher?  sure....do I care?  Not really...I play the probabilities not possibilities...and the high probability trade has completed...

Model 10 exposure down to only 30% Net long

could see another ramp to 1475-80....but I'm not a big fan of squeezing the last drop out of the toothpaste tube...I'll await the new fresh tube!

MON exit

Locked in 7% gain this morning in MON at $90.00 a share from purchase of $84.10

my original price target was $90.25 so I decided to lock-in profits...

We are too near a mkt top in my opinion to not to continue to get defensive...

I'll keep updates coming...

Frenzy...

Bernanke gave the go ahead and buyers didn't dissapoint....all things easy money sky rocketed...gold, silver, equities had explosive days.  As a technician I could care less about QE3 if I'm truly trading the charts...so why today is so important to the likes of me is not the "news" but the "reaction".  Many charts are starting to get clearer...the buck needs to rally off these severely oversold conditions, it has multiple positive divergences (meaning euro neg divergences and topping).  The VIX is finally reaching levels I've been targeting for the past month or so, it also is happening on positive divergences, showing me it is in the process of bottoming.  Metals are a bit more cloudy at this time...they still look like they are showing signs of an exhaustion blow off type move, but I am studying them closely for signs it isn't and really a sustainable initiatin type move.  this gets me to stocks...the two upside targets I've written where 1447 (taken out today) & then 1467...looks like we will be getting the latter...this "euphoric" buying frenzy appears on the charts perfectly for a nice swift corrective move lower to cut these bulls down to size.  I've slowly positioned for this move with Net long exposure entering today of only 45% (65% longs, 20% short & 15% cash)...."Model 10" is +7.5% since June 30th inception...charts are telling me to continue to be more cautious...all long positions are on the chopping block as they hit targets laid out when purchased.  I'll let EEM short continue to play out but won't be afraid to blow out quickly if charts tell me this market is going directly back to '07 highs of 1550+ without a correction....Nimble is the name of the game...always...stay tuned

CELG short in "MODEL 10"

just added another short position in Model 10...

Shorted CELG @ $73.84...stop out above $77 with downside targets of $67 down to $58

Market Thoughts

I believe we are reaching an intermediate term inflection point...many charts I follow through the indexes are starting to have big reversals and coming off quite a bit from their recent highs.  More times than not through my experiences this is the initial tell some sort of top is forming...many stocks will come off quite precipitously while the last of the speculative money pushes fewer and fewer darlings to even higher highs.  A good example of this was the AAN buy and stop out at b/e...on all accounts technically this thing should have taken off, it didn't which meant the air up their was pretty thin and couldnt find any excess buyers over the margin...many other stocks are showing this type of action.  I expect another few days or even 2 weeks of a grind higher...internals are weak and counting on the QE fervor hype and is setting up for another good short-sale opportunity.  I legged into one short so far in the Model 10 with EEM...i will be looking for quite a few more as I feel the path of least resistance near-term is down. My short shopping list at the moment is (AMGN, PCLN, GILD, EBAY, CELG, CERN, ALTR, AKAM, AXP, NKE, USB, NOV, APA) we are 1438 as I write this on the S&P, I see 1447 as a reasonable upside target with a possible extension up to 1463-67, where the risk will be severely tilted to the downside.

Bonds look like they still need a downside push which would coincide with the mkt indicees pushing a bit higher...Euro looks like its topping, but another push up above $1.30 isn't out of the question...today's strong reversal in metals is a prelude to what I feel is about to happen after another push to one more high....stay tuned!

I will continue to publish any other changes to Model 10

AAN...stopped out in "Model 10"

Stopped out of my long AAN position just a bit ago at b/e $29.18

this thing just never got going on the supposed breakout...not worth risking any capital on this one...I will move on and find other opportunities...

taking some gains in "Model 10"

I've said it before and I'll say it again...risk-management is the difference between being an alright or so-so trader/ investor and an excellent one...

Sold half my GOOG position just now at $711.13

I also sold my full position in GE @ $21.48

I laid out 3 price targets for GOOG above $700 when I bought the stock and it hit my 1st one this morning...have to lock in 15% gains in a few short weeks!  let the other half position ride for my higher targets...

I have room for another 1.5 positions in Model 10, will report back if I make any more adjustments...

Short EEM in "Model 10"....

just shorted EEM in "Model 10" at $39.82 to hedge some of my longs...and as an outright good looking short....

chart to follow....

Thoughts...

Kaboom!  thats what happens when too many shorts line-up and press bets and the market isn't ready to top yet...haven't said anything past few weeks, because for most of the whole end of August we literaly pin-balled between 1415 and 1395...complete snoozer

Individual charts pointed higher and today we are getting the explosion.  I'm going to let 'em run a bit more, but am realistic that we may be withing 15 pts of a pretty good intermediate top...my expectations would be 1447 will hold and a correction to the tune of 1300 or so....maybe 1280....

I will be scouring charts for short-setups if i can find many....I will also be firing of taking gains on my longs when price objectives are met...so far a few points away on GOOG, MON, GE....just know I will be looking to punt these any any other LONGS on a moments notice...I may not have time to post fills real-time...

I will update end of week "Model 10" performance against S&P 500 tomorrow....holdings look good and continue to outperform....critical decisions / positioning over next week will most likely prove to be significant...

enjoy today, but that euphoria out there....let's just say it won't last!!!!

with that being said...ALL LONG POSITIONS I'm holding are getting Stops raised to a minimum of B/E....

Mkt update and Model 10 review

Another low volume, lethargic squeeze higher in the indicees this week.  It is apparent that the shorts continue to get squeezed and reluctantly are getting turned into bulls week by week.  I suspect that we may have another few weeks of this where I see the SnP pushing up to 1430-40 level.  Based on individual chart patterns of the S&P 100, Dow 30, Nasdaq 100 and many of the Mid-cap 40o which I chart we are setting up for 2 very real possibilities.  The first scenario (my favored at the moment), is to see individual charts to continue to show nice breakouts into higher trading ranges while many broken stocks rally smack into resistance (breakdown) levels to complete their respective B waves.  Crude will continue to rally a bit higher, Treasuries will continue to sell-off (price) & rise in yields...you will hear many calls that all bond money is now rotating into stocks which is a sign of the renewed bull market (i believe will be the perfect time to get long bonds for another rally)....risk assets have a bit more of upside room...

THEN, boom a huge reversal and epic Bull-Trap which precipitates a C wave down and wiping out all of this year's gains and then some....

Second scenario, which I must keep a very close eye on, is a renewed strenght in the internal techinicals of the market and individual stocks hold and show real breakouts in which the cluster of many fibonacci levels around the 2007 highs above 1500+ is going to be seen before an intermediate peak....

Model 10 portfolio has continued its strength and continues to outperform the S&P 500 since inception of 6/30/12.  I currently have 9 Long positions and 1 position worth of cash.  My current positions are still looking good and I see upside towards each individual price targets I've posted on the charts.  I will stick with them for the time being.  I will be looking for quick reversals and possible false signals to abort some of them.  In the meantime I will continue to scour my chart universe for possible longs and shorts, but with an emphasis on shorts as I feel I'd like to get the model 10 back to a more neutral posture.  The last 3 months of chart development has shown a necessity to be long and it has been a great place to be.  As always nimble, and unbiased is the name of the game and the only true way to invest/trade as a technical analyst.

Chart below reflects Model 10 performance through today's closing prices...

LPS...

not going to add it to the Model 10 here, but it looks like a good risk / reward trade on the long side here...breaking out of inverse H&S pattern projecting a move to $30.25 and then $34.67 which is 10%-26% upside...would risk down to around $26 if it pulls back...

chart to follow...

ESRX add to Model 10 portfolio....

Just added ESRX to Model 10 portfolio @ $61.44

chart to follow with notes....

Model 10 adjustment...

Just sold my TWX position at just short of an 11% gain at $42.78....purchased at $38.58

New Model Portfolio...

Due to some feedback, I have created a easily trackable and tradeable "Model 10 Portfolio" with an inception date of 6/30/2012.  My goal is to create a "True" real-time portfolio that can be compared against a benchmark to generate a track record.

Here is my methodology:  Through the years, I have fine-tuned my technical skills and strategic outlook on how to actually trade these markets.  From that I have created a platform/system that I believe can be replicable in any market conditions.  If you've been following my blog since I started posting tradeable charts at the beginning of the year, my style is to continually trade the "bell-curve" of the probability spectrum.  I do not trade the tail events.  It has taken me an unbelievable amount of time, testing, statistical analysis and actually putting real $ to work both with success and many failures to have this platform come to fruition.

So as of 6/30/2012, I took all the "Real-time" trades that I posted on this Blog and actually put my real capital to work in and have created what I will call my 10 name Model-Portfolio.  This portfolio will have anywhere from 0 to 10 positions on at any time.  Positions will be both long and short depending on chart patterns and market environment.  Each position will be a 10% weighting in the portfolio unless I choose to overweight (double-up) or underweight by taking gains (cutting position in half).

Each position will have an upside price objective (long trades) and downside price objective (short trades).  I will lay out my risk to reward parameters as I do on my posted charts or write-ups.  With my belief system and methodology that technical analysis is superior (charts don't lie) combined with a statistically significant risk-management system, superior returns can be generated over time.

Example:  Almost every trading example or tradeable chart I've posted has come with a defined quantifiable risk to reward ratio that is to be expected.  Let's look at a losing example (afterall only looking at winning trades isn't realistic!) that has actually been a "live" trade in the model portfolio.  On July 11 I posted a chart and trade in which I shorted Disney stock at $47.22.  My risk-management parameters where that I had downside price ojectives of $41 & $38-37....but was only willing to take risk up to $49.20 where I would get "stopped out" at a small loss.  So in reality my risk was $2 and my reward was $6 and up to $9-$10.  If you look at it on a percentage basis my risk was -4.2% and my reward was +12.7% and up to +19-21%.  So this trade did not work out and I got stopped out at that -4.20% loss.

This is a perfect segway into how over-time this model portfolio system can produce profits over time.  I'm going to move onto a hypothetical scenario which includes this 1st DIS trade.  Instead of doing 1 trade let's branch out to an example of 4 trades.  The hypothetical scenario would be using the exact same DIS risk-management parameters where my risk on all 4 trades was the same -4.20%.  My reward on all 4 trades is that 1st price objective of +12.70%.  Let's assume a simple success rate of 50%.  I would have 2 profitable trades of +12.70% each and I would also have two losing trades at a -4.20% each.  Add all 4 trades together and you have a total return of 17% (12.7 + 12.7 -4.2 -4.2).  Now divide that 17% return by the 4 trades and you get a total return of +4.25% on the hypothetical portfolio.  Amazing how a 50% success rate provides a significantly positive return just by using a proper statistical risk-management system.  Now 4.25% doesn't sound like much, but remember most of these chart trades hit price objectives in a matter of weeks and or a few months, so the portfolio is never dormant.  It is always active.  So as soon as those 4 trades are closed there is much more time in the year to continually reinvest that capital and do the same thing over and over again.  If you can turn the portfolio over 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 times a year...you can see how returns can be generated quite nicely.  Now this example is assuming a 50% success rate, which I feel given my technical analysis edge, is low.  If you increase the success rate while maintaining my risk-management system, you can really start to produce superior returns over time.

Here is a performance chart of the Model portfolio against the benchmark S&P 500 since inception of 6/30/2012.  Below is all the opening and closing transactions as posted on the blog since inception.  Grey boxed symbols below are still open positions....I will keep the Model 10 portfolio on the Right hand column with all open positions and current cash positions.  I will make chrystal clear on blog posts of any Model 10 adjustments.  I will also continue to post other charts that are tradeable but make note if they are not in the Model 10.

Delayed GOOG & CVX charts from 7/27 purchase

ORCL

just added another long here in ORCL...bought @ $31.19

price target is $34-35

stopping out below $30!

chart to follow...

ALL

bought ALL this morning @ $37.23....

targets are $40.40 and $43.25

stopping out below $34.50

chart to follow...

Nimble...

This business does not pay to be stubborn and unflexible...took me many dumb trades and loss of capital to realize that lesson...not going to do it here...

this market is headed higher, so it is pretty clear I needed to do something....SO:

Lots and lots of trades this morning...I sensed a big move coming (I just thought it was going to be down!)....after review of all my go to individual charts it is apparent to me that the big move is underway only it is on the UPSIDE!!!!  ...previous highs are doable in near future around 1420-30...and an outside change of the previous 2007 levels of +1500

during pre-market / opening minutes of trading I covered all my shorts except SBUX....I also took long positions in GOOG ($619.28) & CVX ($108.62)...charts to follow

Shorts Covered @:

DE $75.45
EEM $38.97
EWA $22.91
EWC $26.27
EWG $19.95
EWI $10.46
EWJ $8.99
EWL $23.13
EWP $22.09
EWQ $19.41
EWU $16.43
EWW $62.69
EWZ $52.31
FXI $33.61
LNKD $96.63
PIN $16.47
RSX $26.47

Today's action...

Well Today left little doubt in my mind that my Friday's post was accurate...Simply: Market is topping!  Today's action was bailed out a bit again by those aggressive dip-buyers...which continue to expend an awful lot of energy...Crude oil got punished, Euro back to new lows, treasuries new lows in yield, european yields back to new highs, spanish and italian stock markets at new lows (below 2009 levels!!!)...hold on tight, major downside commencing real soon....I have a tight leash on all my longs and ready to press or add new shorts...

Thoughts...

After nailing the 1375 level I was looking for since the breakout @ 1335 we've seen a nice healthy pullback?  or is it going to mark a top?  either way, to me it doesn't matter...we are clearly in the midst of a longer term topping process...the bearish side of the ledger has 3 glaringly obvious things going for it.  1) Euro making new lows 2) 10-yr treasury making new lows in yields and 3) very poor breadth and internal strength in the market during this rally off the lows....those 3 things have been an extraordinary tell for the overall market and will continue to work until they don't...Italy and Spain are right back at there lows from May while the US indicees are up over 7% from their respective lows...many individual stocks are carving out tremendously long-term bearish patterns, while there are many making intermediate term strong bullish looking charts...continues to be a tale of "Have's" and "Have Nots"...don't fight it...I continue to short ugly stocks and get long bullish looking charts...its working and will continue to work until the wheels eventually fall off this market...

I sold my 2x long position in DECK this morning as I sense a big part of the move is complete...sold @ $48.34 from my two purchases average price of $44.34....

HNZ chart...

HAL chart...

GS chart...

GILD chart...

GD chart...

FDX chart...

AAN...buying now

I've been following this chart for years...and I see some recent positive developments and think AAN is on its way to a nice breakout of this 1.5 yr ascending triangle...my price targets are $33.25 and then between $35-41 (i know wide range), but if the two flag or pennant patterns play out this could be a very nice trade...stopping out below $27.50 at the moment but ofcourse subject to change rather quickly...

F chart

DIS stopped out...

Got stopped out of my DIS short this morning at $49.20....from opening short at $47.22 so took a 4.19% loss...this is exactly why risk to reward calculations on swing trades are SO CRITICAL...when you are wrong it does not kill you....I risked 4.19% to earn up to what I thought was a 15-20% possible gain...market looks like it is headed to that 1375 level I've been looking for...

Thoughts...

Looks like today was a small consolidation day after friday's huge move up...keeping it simple for the moment as I see upside targets of 1374-75 and possibly higher...but will wait to reassess the higher levels if and when we get to 1375!  until then I will remain fully hedged against all open short positions and continue to remain net long with the few Long positions I have outstanding...MON had very nice surging follow-through day after friday's breakout so I may be looking to add to that position very soon...stay nimble and flexible and away from biases and let the charts tell you where things are headed...it remains best play too make money in this environment right now....

Covering a little....

Just covered half my QCOM short at $54.95 from original short @ $62.62...also covered my full SMH short just now @ $30.32 from shorting at $32.63

MON & TGT....long trades

bought MON just now on fresh breakout at $84.10....chart to follow...

stopping out below $81 at the moment....my upside price objective is $92.25

bought TGT on breakout surge @ $60.88....chart to follow...

stopping out below $58......upside price objective is $70.56

Update...

All eyes were on JPM and the market liked the earnings....pre-market this morning here 5:30 am California time out here it was trading in the $34 range but definitely below $35...as we crawled closer to the new york open which is 6:30 CA time the stock was creeping higher and finally opened over $35....the thing that I took notice was that the S&P futures had done a U-turn as well and were now on the verge of a small resistance breakout at 1337....in my experience I knew that the small momentum garnered pre-market was going to pick-up as the market opened, so there was a small window to cover my JPM short at $35.15 (my fill)....and HEDGE the rest of my short positions...my fill on those hedges was right around that 1340 area on the S&P...appears market is carving out yet another decent rally to suck-in more buyers and exhaust even more buying power...this is starting to get rather reminiscent of '07 where given an extraordinary weak technical picture, the Market indicees just refused to go down with any follow-through....stay the course and remain nimble, it is really all you can do....like I always say, the market is gonna do what it's gonna do and it's not worth getting upset...keep discipline, remain focused and at some point the Chop will turn into a more sustainable trend...

JPM has room to run to $37.50 or so and I'll be looking to re-short there....for now I'll take the small +0.80% gain and move on...

EMR chart...

EMC chart...

DVN chart...

DOW chart...

DELL chart...

CVS chart...

COST chart...

COP chart...

COF chart...

CL chart...

C chart...

BRK/B chart...

BMY chart...

BK chart...

BAX chart...

AVP chart...

APA chart...

AMZN chart...

AMGN chart...

ALL chart...

AEP chart...

ABT chart...

S&P 100 chart project....

I've spent countless hours over the last week charting every S&P 100 stock and Nasdaq 100 stock...I have completed charting all 200, and now am in the exhaustive process of analyzing them further and projecting my expectations with important levels worth noting, etc.....I will begin to post all those 200 charts over the next few days/weeks with all my handwritten notes, thoughts, and analysis....I will ofcourse disclose any of those charts I have positions in at time of individual posts....

Staying the course...

Like all the positions I have on at the moment...S&P is at a big crossroads at the moment, I suspect with JPM kicking off Financials earnings season it will set the tone for Mkt indicees behavior...1335 has been my important pivot and we trades this morning below it and rallied to get back above it and closed just a hair underneath it, proving this area is important....No hedges on right now and I like it that way, will let my individual names continue on there own paths....stay tuned...I'll report back with some charts and deeper analysis after some market action tomorrow morning...

DIS short...

Just shorted DIS @ $47.22....chart to follow

Risking $2 with stop at $49.20....Downside target of $41 which puts reward @ $6....but DIS could possibly see $37/38....

MRK...locking in big gains on Half position...

When I set target prices when entering positions I try to stay very disciplined in when to take gains or cut my small losses...today is no different...MRK just nailed my original Price Target of $42.07...therefore to remain disciplined I am taking half my position off at at 12.48% gain....just sold at $42.18

I well watch 2nd half closely...upside targets of $44-46 remain....and a pull-back to $40ish will likely have me putting this recently sold half position back on....

ORIGINAL POST  with chart and link:  http://mychartdiary.blogspot.com/2012/05/mrk.html

FOLLOW-UP POST with chart and link:  http://mychartdiary.blogspot.com/2012/06/mrk-chart-update.html

GE...

Took a stab on long side here....filled at $20.01

GE is one of the better looking charts out there...looking to stop out in the $19.65 area...going to be flexible on this one...

DECK add...Removed hedges

Added to a 2 X position in DECK just now at $45.12

love this chart and think we see much higher levels....avg long cost is now $44.34

stop now a bit higher at $42.75....

Put Hedges on around 1353 SPX took them off this morning 1st thing around 1366....looks like indexes may roll over...

XME cover...

covered my XME short just a few minutes ago...rather than watch all my profits evaporate I locked in just shy of an 8% gain...I will reload at higher levels!