Nimble...

This business does not pay to be stubborn and unflexible...took me many dumb trades and loss of capital to realize that lesson...not going to do it here...

this market is headed higher, so it is pretty clear I needed to do something....SO:

Lots and lots of trades this morning...I sensed a big move coming (I just thought it was going to be down!)....after review of all my go to individual charts it is apparent to me that the big move is underway only it is on the UPSIDE!!!!  ...previous highs are doable in near future around 1420-30...and an outside change of the previous 2007 levels of +1500

during pre-market / opening minutes of trading I covered all my shorts except SBUX....I also took long positions in GOOG ($619.28) & CVX ($108.62)...charts to follow

Shorts Covered @:

DE $75.45
EEM $38.97
EWA $22.91
EWC $26.27
EWG $19.95
EWI $10.46
EWJ $8.99
EWL $23.13
EWP $22.09
EWQ $19.41
EWU $16.43
EWW $62.69
EWZ $52.31
FXI $33.61
LNKD $96.63
PIN $16.47
RSX $26.47

Today's action...

Well Today left little doubt in my mind that my Friday's post was accurate...Simply: Market is topping!  Today's action was bailed out a bit again by those aggressive dip-buyers...which continue to expend an awful lot of energy...Crude oil got punished, Euro back to new lows, treasuries new lows in yield, european yields back to new highs, spanish and italian stock markets at new lows (below 2009 levels!!!)...hold on tight, major downside commencing real soon....I have a tight leash on all my longs and ready to press or add new shorts...

Thoughts...

After nailing the 1375 level I was looking for since the breakout @ 1335 we've seen a nice healthy pullback?  or is it going to mark a top?  either way, to me it doesn't matter...we are clearly in the midst of a longer term topping process...the bearish side of the ledger has 3 glaringly obvious things going for it.  1) Euro making new lows 2) 10-yr treasury making new lows in yields and 3) very poor breadth and internal strength in the market during this rally off the lows....those 3 things have been an extraordinary tell for the overall market and will continue to work until they don't...Italy and Spain are right back at there lows from May while the US indicees are up over 7% from their respective lows...many individual stocks are carving out tremendously long-term bearish patterns, while there are many making intermediate term strong bullish looking charts...continues to be a tale of "Have's" and "Have Nots"...don't fight it...I continue to short ugly stocks and get long bullish looking charts...its working and will continue to work until the wheels eventually fall off this market...

I sold my 2x long position in DECK this morning as I sense a big part of the move is complete...sold @ $48.34 from my two purchases average price of $44.34....

HNZ chart...

HAL chart...

GS chart...

GILD chart...

GD chart...

FDX chart...

AAN...buying now

I've been following this chart for years...and I see some recent positive developments and think AAN is on its way to a nice breakout of this 1.5 yr ascending triangle...my price targets are $33.25 and then between $35-41 (i know wide range), but if the two flag or pennant patterns play out this could be a very nice trade...stopping out below $27.50 at the moment but ofcourse subject to change rather quickly...

F chart

DIS stopped out...

Got stopped out of my DIS short this morning at $49.20....from opening short at $47.22 so took a 4.19% loss...this is exactly why risk to reward calculations on swing trades are SO CRITICAL...when you are wrong it does not kill you....I risked 4.19% to earn up to what I thought was a 15-20% possible gain...market looks like it is headed to that 1375 level I've been looking for...

Thoughts...

Looks like today was a small consolidation day after friday's huge move up...keeping it simple for the moment as I see upside targets of 1374-75 and possibly higher...but will wait to reassess the higher levels if and when we get to 1375!  until then I will remain fully hedged against all open short positions and continue to remain net long with the few Long positions I have outstanding...MON had very nice surging follow-through day after friday's breakout so I may be looking to add to that position very soon...stay nimble and flexible and away from biases and let the charts tell you where things are headed...it remains best play too make money in this environment right now....

Covering a little....

Just covered half my QCOM short at $54.95 from original short @ $62.62...also covered my full SMH short just now @ $30.32 from shorting at $32.63

MON & TGT....long trades

bought MON just now on fresh breakout at $84.10....chart to follow...

stopping out below $81 at the moment....my upside price objective is $92.25

bought TGT on breakout surge @ $60.88....chart to follow...

stopping out below $58......upside price objective is $70.56

Update...

All eyes were on JPM and the market liked the earnings....pre-market this morning here 5:30 am California time out here it was trading in the $34 range but definitely below $35...as we crawled closer to the new york open which is 6:30 CA time the stock was creeping higher and finally opened over $35....the thing that I took notice was that the S&P futures had done a U-turn as well and were now on the verge of a small resistance breakout at 1337....in my experience I knew that the small momentum garnered pre-market was going to pick-up as the market opened, so there was a small window to cover my JPM short at $35.15 (my fill)....and HEDGE the rest of my short positions...my fill on those hedges was right around that 1340 area on the S&P...appears market is carving out yet another decent rally to suck-in more buyers and exhaust even more buying power...this is starting to get rather reminiscent of '07 where given an extraordinary weak technical picture, the Market indicees just refused to go down with any follow-through....stay the course and remain nimble, it is really all you can do....like I always say, the market is gonna do what it's gonna do and it's not worth getting upset...keep discipline, remain focused and at some point the Chop will turn into a more sustainable trend...

JPM has room to run to $37.50 or so and I'll be looking to re-short there....for now I'll take the small +0.80% gain and move on...

EMR chart...

EMC chart...

DVN chart...

DOW chart...

DELL chart...

CVS chart...

COST chart...

COP chart...

COF chart...

CL chart...

C chart...

BRK/B chart...

BMY chart...

BK chart...

BAX chart...

AVP chart...

APA chart...

AMZN chart...

AMGN chart...

ALL chart...

AEP chart...

ABT chart...

S&P 100 chart project....

I've spent countless hours over the last week charting every S&P 100 stock and Nasdaq 100 stock...I have completed charting all 200, and now am in the exhaustive process of analyzing them further and projecting my expectations with important levels worth noting, etc.....I will begin to post all those 200 charts over the next few days/weeks with all my handwritten notes, thoughts, and analysis....I will ofcourse disclose any of those charts I have positions in at time of individual posts....

Staying the course...

Like all the positions I have on at the moment...S&P is at a big crossroads at the moment, I suspect with JPM kicking off Financials earnings season it will set the tone for Mkt indicees behavior...1335 has been my important pivot and we trades this morning below it and rallied to get back above it and closed just a hair underneath it, proving this area is important....No hedges on right now and I like it that way, will let my individual names continue on there own paths....stay tuned...I'll report back with some charts and deeper analysis after some market action tomorrow morning...

DIS short...

Just shorted DIS @ $47.22....chart to follow

Risking $2 with stop at $49.20....Downside target of $41 which puts reward @ $6....but DIS could possibly see $37/38....

MRK...locking in big gains on Half position...

When I set target prices when entering positions I try to stay very disciplined in when to take gains or cut my small losses...today is no different...MRK just nailed my original Price Target of $42.07...therefore to remain disciplined I am taking half my position off at at 12.48% gain....just sold at $42.18

I well watch 2nd half closely...upside targets of $44-46 remain....and a pull-back to $40ish will likely have me putting this recently sold half position back on....

ORIGINAL POST  with chart and link:  http://mychartdiary.blogspot.com/2012/05/mrk.html

FOLLOW-UP POST with chart and link:  http://mychartdiary.blogspot.com/2012/06/mrk-chart-update.html

GE...

Took a stab on long side here....filled at $20.01

GE is one of the better looking charts out there...looking to stop out in the $19.65 area...going to be flexible on this one...

DECK add...Removed hedges

Added to a 2 X position in DECK just now at $45.12

love this chart and think we see much higher levels....avg long cost is now $44.34

stop now a bit higher at $42.75....

Put Hedges on around 1353 SPX took them off this morning 1st thing around 1366....looks like indexes may roll over...

XME cover...

covered my XME short just a few minutes ago...rather than watch all my profits evaporate I locked in just shy of an 8% gain...I will reload at higher levels!

DECK...No joke...I'm a buyer!

Long from $43.55

 

Risk = $3.65

 

Reward = $7 to $17.50

 

 

TWX chart....entered new long position

bought TWX just now @ $38.58

stopping out below $37 and price target is +/- $45

risk = $1.60

 reward = +/- $6.40