"Computer's gone wild"....

S&P closed @ 1310

today was a fun one...big down open, little interest in buying....then kaboom europe closes and the bots go to work...only problem was there was zero confirmation by other markets...euro didn't fudge...crude burped...treasuries yawned...and the VIX played dead...

My take is the rumblings are about to begin...bulls were claiming victory in the 8th inning....then suddenly computers fell asleep and market fell right back down...no surprise as I said above, no other markets were confirming such a drastic move up....this is what a volatile counter-trend move (up) since main trend is firmly Bearish (even though no one on the boob-tube will mentions such words).....it shakes all weak bears and makes mince-meat outta the bulls...buy-the dip is still the menu du jour so until these over-eager buyers get washed out...often seen as capitulation....I will hold steady in short positions....

Job numbers could be the catalyst to nudge this market off the cliff....

Very happy w/ decision yesterday to remove hedges...

S&P currently @ 1313

like I said yesterday, I believe market has began next big down-leg...I see no reason to fudge around with any of my short positions...the hedges I had off and on over past week protected against the up move in S&P from 1300 or so to 1330....so they did there jobs!  Euro is breaking down very badly yet again and contrary to popular opinion I see no reason it can't continue it's terrible free-fall...My price target is between $0.90 and $1.05 as final target....

Expecting next leg down to begin shortly...

S&P currently sits at 1330

with further breakdown of euro today, gold looking like it's hanging on by a thread and crude acting pretty poorly even though its gotten hammered to me...and I think the downside is set to resume after this 12 day chop....removing hedges here @ 1330 and going back to FULLY SHORT...could the market rally further?  ....sure!  but I'm not betting on it and when this unravels it will do so in a hurry...we saw how fast we went from 1420 to 1295...I think that same move is about to commence from current 1330 to 1206-1248 range...I'll be looking to cover a bunch down there

TIF

Short TIF @ +/- $57.00

this is as about a good a short set-up as I've seen....I think before TIF's bear move is over it will see $37....I began a short position and will look to add to it...

Hedges removed...then put back on!

Another wide range...S&P closed at 1320...morning high was 1324 afternoon low 1310

Early morning ramp up to 1322-24 had me take hedges off when it was apparent it was reversing...fully short again....

then into the afternoon lows around 1310-12 I put all the hedges back on....so back to mkt neutral....volatile market, you have to roll with the punches...you can not get lulled into sleep by your position....

Here's a few charts that paint the picture of the tape...many charts that broke down over past week/two and have no thrown back perfectly into resistance/breakdown level and appear to be reversing hard from those levels (very bearish)....top 2 charts...

Than a few broadening top charts which are uber bearish as they ultimately end in a precipitous fall...bottom 2 charts...

Hedged up...

S&P closed at 1318 off the lows of 1296

Today had every attmept to take out last fridays lows and take a plunge lower...BUT it didn't...once I saw the bulls begin to take advantage of the fact that the Bears couldn't put them away (low 1300's)....I took on some bullish hedges to protect my short positions...sure enough Market went crazy when the computers got a hold of it and exploded to close positive on the day....I expect some more upside from here and will remain hedged until 1337-39 or 1347-53....those are the levels I will be looking to exit hedges and go back to fully short....counter to that a break below 1312 will have me watching closely for action and then ofcourse below 1304-5 and friday's lows will have me possibly exiting all hedges...mkt neutral here for time being...that bounce has to be respected...and if it doesn't play out than I will have higher conviction on short side again...

Bulls drop the ball...

S&P closed back at 1316 off the highs of 1328.49 for the day

today did nothing to change my mind that this market is unhealthy and heading lower....the real question is when?  today gives me a bit more conviction that the path or least resistance is clearly down...this is exactly the action I spoke of the other day...big swings intraday will surely continue...don't get chopped up

Will consider stopping out of shorts if today's high of 1328.49 is taken out...but for the meantime, the wind is at my back with my short positions...and I'll let 'em run....think low 1200's is the next possible level on the next leg down...I will cover there for what will be a strong bounce up....

relief rally...

S&P closed at 1315

it appears that a crash has been taken off the table...for now!  The market rallied nicely off of some pretty good short-covering and probably some ole' fashion dip-buying to go with it...This was day 1 of a rally-attempt...market still has a lot to prove before I throw in the towel on my shorts...only short i took in today was SLB as the chart didn't get the break-down I was expecting...took a scratch on that, no harm no foul....

but today has my attention, we will see if there is any follow through in store...I expect a lot of volatile chop over next week or two to shake out over eager/late bears and the dip-buyers...

'87 crash redux in the making?

S&P sitting around 1295

I'm just saying the similarities leading up to the weekend before black monday in October of '87 are EERILY SIMILAR....I'm no conspiracy theorist, but the market is telling me that something is very very wrong....I'm sitting here very very leveraged short since the high 1300's low 1400's and I'm sick to my stomach....and not because I'm losing $...quite the contrary as I've racked up the best 2 week gains of my career...but from a Human level I'm sick, because I think a crash is a distinct possibility next week....I have not and WILL NOT be covering any shorts...not till the market makes me....

VIX showing us the way...

HON

Short just a little above $56

yet another short I just put out....

PCLN

short just a hair above $661

"...and another one down and another one down and another one bites the dust"
In case I wasn't clear...I'm short this one as well...

It's raining cats and breakdowns all over the place....but those slick fundamentalists continue to say buy 'em....their cheap...

I say sell 'em they'll get even cheaper...

that's what makes a market!

SLB

Getting redundant, but here's another one I'm short...not pretty when it cracks...

DE

Short @ $74.50

and another short put out just now....the fact that NOBODY is seeing all these huge global breakdowns is unbelievable...I will continue to increase my short line as my conviction is very strong that we have much more downside to come!

QCOM

Short @ $64.70 1st position...pressed here above $60.50...Avg'd @ $62.62

pressing this short right here....more downside on this break is coming...

Another gift...

S&P just rallied up to 1341

today's rally is nothing but a gift...use it wisely...we may not have many more lucky opportunities like this...I'm looknig to expand short-book....I'll report anymore I throw out...FYI my only long stocks are T, MRK & KO...I'm short significant positions in all charts I've posted over past few weeks...haven't covered any yet and won't until Sub-1300 is visited...

Don't believe what the Longs are selling!

no reason to think we've bottomed...

S&P closed @ 1330 today

This continues to play out like I expected, and I'm still yet to see much panic, which means we aren't close to an intermediate tradeable bottom yet...I'm staying pat with all the shorts I outline over past few weeks as I'm racking up some pretty large gains, but I'm quite sure the gains will get much larger as stocks continue to fall...haven't covered anything yet...rather looking to press my short bets with some dry powder into any rallies over near-term...I'll consider covering around 1288 S&P and my fib targets on all my posted charts for indivual stock shorts...

Last chance to get out....walls are closing in!

S&P currently @ 1362

appears this a-b-c-d-e triangle correction is about over (pathetic attempt by the bulls)....that means next week could be a blood bath as the iii of the a of C wave down is commencing...LOOK OUT BELOW!!!  I wouldn't be long one share of stock going into this weekend...

OXY

Short @ $85.55

here's another Short I just put out....I can't help myself...breakdowns are abundant and risk/reward is extremely favorable on the short side right now...stop out levels aren't that high above where I'm shorting but reward on the downside is HUGE...most of my shorts I'm calculating at 2 or 3 or even 4 X 1 on what my reward is against risk...hard to pass up....again don't buy what the Longs are selling...

SMH

Short @ $32.63

Shorted Semi's just now....Don't believe anything the Longs are selling right now....markets still on precipous of a big break lower....I'll change my tune a bit if S&P can clear 1390-1400...until then the Bears are in control...rally today is pathetic...semi's & Trannies making new lows, up volume is horrific and down volume is increasing...the writing is still on the wall....Longs are not an acceptable place to be right now...

LNKD

Short @ $120.6

Last short that I threw out Friday....and quite honestly I don't have an exact cover area in mind yet...if it breaks uptrend and current range, it could go a lot lower...if it holds than that may have been it...won't know more till "it's time to act"....stop out at b/e right now...for insurance

XME

Short @ just a hair below $46

Shorted this on break Friday as well...should see a big break soon...low $30's as target for cover...maybe even lower if things get bad enough...

SLW

threw this one out as a short today....believe severe downside coming...Target is sub-$20 for possible cover

Today is just an appetizer...the Entree is just around the corner!

S&P currently @ 1369 and getting hammered down 22 pts!

CAUTION: TODAY IS CONFIRMATION of my last months worth of posts and technical deteriation in the markets....I made a case back on 3/29 that the Market had made a technical Top, and price would then take a bit longer but Top nonetheless as well ( http://mychartdiary.blogspot.com/2012/03/divergences-finally-gaining-traction.html  )...... Then on I rang the mytholigical Bell of the Stock Market Top back on 4/30 @ 1403 on S&P 500 ( http://mychartdiary.blogspot.com/2012/04/global-market-in-review.html )......World markets are at a MASSIVE TIPPING POINT and hinging on the VERGE OF A COLLAPSE...almost uniformly across the board world equity markets are about to break their respective 3 year H&S patterns and are currently sitting on very important necklines....Markets are setting up for a very possible "flash crash" type of event that could happen as early as Monday....EXTREME CAUTION is warranted on the long side....Now is the time to be SHORT not LONG!!!  You won't find anyone on CNBC telling you this....but markets are very predictable when you recognize patterns, waves and cycles...we are about to embark on a precipitous haircut to the tune of 30-50% across the board on all world markets...Globalization was a great idea 10-15-20 years ago...but when you look at my top 15 Economies market posts a few days back, look at how eerily similar everyody looks...scary stuff...it doesn't matter how much our Federal Reserve tries to fight it, the deflation cycle is about to hit and hit very hard....be smart don't be long stocks...I warned as early as a month or two ago that it was the time above 1400+ to sell everything and not be the dummy to try and squeeze the last 1-2-3% of upside out of the toothpaste tube...see the 1st link above....because there was severely more downside than upside around the corner...please don't listen to anyone telling you this is a buying opportunity...wait to purchase those people's shares 25-50% lower down the road after they buy and puke 'em out at the bottom....cash is king right now I don't care what anyone says....preserve capital now and thank me later!

MRK

T

DKS update

First published 2-8-12 with a buy chart....got in between $40-43 on a few accumulation buys...sold today above $50...

link from original post:  http://mychartdiary.blogspot.com/2012/02/dks.html